ESA PADRE Analysis Results
Summary - Per Component Impact Probability
Test case: Example DRAMA Uncontrolled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry
Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis
simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a
relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted
from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using the DRAMA v3.0.4 version of
SESAM. Uncertainties in the initial true anomaly, atmosphere density, material
properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between
2000 and 5000 simulations has been executed.
Status
- Analysis started: 2022-02-03 20:49:59
- Last updated: 2022-02-04 00:28:53
- Elapsed time: 13134 secs
- Simulation count: 2000
- Batch count: 8
- Results converged: True
- Analysis complete: True
Per Component Impact Probability
95% confidence limit of Prob(casualty risk): 0.02
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Mean Energy (J) | Low Energy (J) | Details |
|---|
| 0 | ARRAY1 | 0.00 |
97 | 91 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 1 | ARRAY2 | 0.00 |
97 | 91 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 2 | ARRAY3 | 0.00 |
97 | 91 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 3 | BAFFLE | 0.00 |
90 | 82 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 4 | BAFSUP | 0.00 |
87 | 76 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | View |
| 5 | BENCH | 0.00 |
77 | 65 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 6 | CAVTUB | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
7.6e+03 | 4.9e+03 | View |
| 7 | CMGB | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.9e+04 | 0 | View |
| 8 | COMEC | 0.00 |
82 | 71 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 9 | COMEE | 0.00 |
86 | 77 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Mean Energy (J) | Low Energy (J) | Details |
|---|
| 10 | CONE | 0.00 |
91 | 82 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 11 | DUMMY | 0.00 |
61 | 42 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 12 | EPC | 0.00 |
84 | 72 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 13 | EPTHST | 0.00 |
84 | 72 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 14 | EPTNK | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
1.3e+03 | 8.4e+02 | View |
| 15 | FLOOR1 | 0.00 |
89 | 81 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 16 | FLOOR2 | 0.00 |
86 | 76 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 17 | FLOOR3 | 0.00 |
88 | 79 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 18 | FOCAL | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
4.7e+03 | 3e+03 | View |
| 19 | ISMC | 0.00 |
81 | 69 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Mean Energy (J) | Low Energy (J) | Details |
|---|
| 20 | ISME | 0.00 |
85 | 75 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 21 | MIRROR | 1.00 |
Unknown | Unknown | None | 0.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
1.4e+04 | 9.2e+03 | View |
| 22 | MTQCR | 0.09 |
76 | 65 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
41 | 0 | View |
| 23 | MTQCU | 0.00 |
84 | 74 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 24 | MTQE | 0.00 |
89 | 80 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 25 | PANEL1 | 0.00 |
90 | 82 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 26 | PANEL2 | 0.00 |
90 | 81 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 27 | PANEL3 | 0.00 |
90 | 81 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 28 | PANEL4 | 0.00 |
90 | 81 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 29 | PANEL5 | 0.00 |
89 | 81 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Mean Energy (J) | Low Energy (J) | Details |
|---|
| 30 | PANEL6 | 0.00 |
90 | 81 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 31 | PCDUC | 0.00 |
81 | 69 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 32 | PCDUE | 0.00 |
84 | 74 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 33 | PM25S | 0.00 |
84 | 72 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 34 | RWBBU | 0.07 |
69 | 55 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
51 | 0 | View |
| 35 | RWE | 0.00 |
86 | 77 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 36 | RWFW | 0.99 |
74 | 71 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
1.3e+03 | 0 | View |
| 37 | TRUSS1 | 0.00 |
87 | 77 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
| 38 | TRUSS2 | 0.83 |
75 | 69 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
3.1e+02 | 0 | View |
| 39 | VPUC | 0.00 |
78 | 64 | View | 1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
17 | 0 | View |
| # | Component | Pr(survives) | No Risk Data Set | At Risk Data Set |
|---|
| Mean Alt (km) | Low Alt (km) | Details | Pr(atomic) | Pr(compound) | Pr(contained) | Mean Energy (J) | Low Energy (J) | Details |
|---|
| 40 | VPUE | 0.00 |
81 | 70 | View | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Unknown | Unknown | None |
ESA PADRE 2021