ESA PADRE Analysis Results

Summary - No Risk / EPC

Test case: Example DRAMA Uncontrolled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using the DRAMA v3.0.4 version of SESAM. Uncertainties in the initial true anomaly, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 2000 and 5000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Analysis started: 2022-02-03 20:49:59
Last updated: 2022-02-04 00:28:53
Elapsed time: 13134 secs
Simulation count: 2000
Batch count: 8
Results converged: True
Analysis complete: True

Detailed Results for Component: EPC, Data Set: No Risk

Overview

Number of samples where component demises: 2000 (100% of simulations)
Number of samples with demise as an atomic object: 0 (0% of demising samples)
Number of samples with demise as a compound object: 2000 (100% of demising samples)

The following distributions include results for all components that demise, including those that demise as atomic components, part of a compound fragment

Release Altitude

Gaussian Fit	Beta Fit
Mean: 8.4e+04 (+/- 1.8e+02 / 1.8e+02) Standard deviation: 4e+03 (+/- 1.3e+02 / 1.2e+02)	Location: 6.2e+04 Scale: 3.1e+04 Beta A: 8.2 Beta B: 3.6

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

No Risk Altitude

Gaussian Fit	Beta Fit
Mean: 8.4e+04 (+/- 1.8e+02 / 1.8e+02) Standard deviation: 4e+03 (+/- 1.3e+02 / 1.2e+02)	Location: 6.2e+04 Scale: 3.1e+04 Beta A: 8.2 Beta B: 3.6

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

ESA PADRE 2021