ESA PADRE Analysis Results

Overview | Fragment Composition

Test case: Example DRAMA Uncontrolled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using the DRAMA v3.0.4 version of SESAM. Uncertainties in the initial true anomaly, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 2000 and 5000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Configuration

Description

The following tables describe the composition of fragments that impact the ground. Details of compound fragments (those comprising several linked geometric primitives) and atomic fragments made up of a single primitive are listed separately. In both cases fragments are listed in order of descending probability of impact. For both compound and atomic fragments an overall table detailing the expected fragment area, casualty area and landed mass, inclusive of the probability of impact is provided. This is followed by a second table that details the profile of the fragment area, casualty area, landed mass and energy exclusive of the probability of impact (i.e. only considering the data set comprising those instances where the fragment actually survives).

Compound Fragments

Profile of fragments impacting the ground with connected-to peers or unreleased child components.

Aggregate Fragment Profile

The probability of impact and expected values of fragment area, casualty area and mass based on the number of fragments on vehicle and probability of impact

Frag# Pr(survive) Fragment Count Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Components
InitialImpact
1 1.000 1 1.00 2.75 1.117 35.60 CAVTUB,MIRROR

Specific Fragment Profile

Profile of the magnitude of each impact of the specific fragment configuration in terms of fragment area, casualty area, mass and energy

Frag# Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Energy (kJ) Components
5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95%
1 2.746 2.746 2.746 1.117 1.117 1.117 35.60 35.60 35.60 18.11 21.91 26.38 CAVTUB,MIRROR

Atomic Fragments

Fragments impacting the ground as a single component with no peers or unreleased children.

Aggregate Fragment Profile

The probability of impact and expected values of fragment area, casualty area and mass based on the number of fragments on vehicle and probability of impact

Frag# Pr(survive) Fragment Count Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Components
InitialImpact
1 1.000 1 1.00 0.66 0.044 7.77 CMGB
2 1.000 1 1.00 0.75 0.072 2.30 EPTNK
3 1.000 1 1.00 0.67 0.047 3.50 FOCAL
4 0.989 1 0.99 0.60 0.031 1.28 RWFW
5 0.827 1 0.83 0.45 0.016 0.39 TRUSS2
6 0.092 1 0.09 0.05 0.001 0.02 MTQCR
7 0.073 1 0.07 0.03 0.000 0.01 RWBBU
8 0.002 7 0.01 0.01 0.000 0.00 VPUC
9 0.001 1 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 BAFSUP

Specific Fragment Profile

Profile of the magnitude of each impact of the specific fragment configuration in terms of fragment area, casualty area, mass and energy

Frag# Casualty Area (m^2) Fragment Area (m^2) Mass (kg) Energy (kJ) Components
5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95% 5%Mean95%
1 0.655 0.655 0.655 0.044 0.044 0.044 2.94 7.77 10.30 3.49 28.65 51.60 CMGB
2 0.755 0.755 0.755 0.072 0.072 0.072 2.30 2.30 2.30 1.08 1.31 1.57 EPTNK
3 0.666 0.666 0.666 0.047 0.047 0.047 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.87 4.68 5.65 FOCAL
4 0.604 0.604 0.604 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.29 1.30 2.30 0.05 1.26 3.24 RWFW
5 0.544 0.544 0.544 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.14 0.48 1.12 0.02 0.31 1.21 TRUSS2
6 0.511 0.511 0.511 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.09 0.16 0.28 0.01 0.04 0.10 MTQCR
7 0.452 0.452 0.452 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.06 0.11 0.21 0.01 0.05 0.15 RWBBU
8 0.636 0.636 0.636 0.039 0.039 0.039 0.15 0.20 0.23 0.01 0.02 0.02 VPUC
9 2.248 2.248 2.248 0.809 0.809 0.809 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.02 0.02 0.02 BAFSUP

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