ESA PADRE Analysis Results

Summary - Per Fragment Vehicle Risk

Test case: Example DRAMA Uncontrolled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using the DRAMA v3.0.4 version of SESAM. Uncertainties in the initial true anomaly, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 2000 and 5000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Analysis started: 2022-02-03 20:49:59
Last updated: 2022-02-04 00:28:53
Elapsed time: 13134 secs
Simulation count: 2000
Batch count: 8
Results converged: True
Analysis complete: True

Configuration

Analysis configuration: View / Download
Uncertainties configuration: View / Download

Per Fragment Landed Mass

Gaussian Fit	Beta Fit
Mean: 8.5 (+/- 0.22 / 0.22) Standard deviation: 12 (+/- 0.16 / 0.16)	Location: -3.4 Scale: 39 Beta A: 0.045 Beta B: 0.17

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Per Fragment Impact Energy

Gaussian Fit	Beta Fit
Mean: 9.7e+03 (+/- 2.4e+02 / 2.4e+02) Standard deviation: 1.3e+04 (+/- 1.7e+02 / 1.7e+02)	Location: 8.2 Scale: 8.3e+04 Beta A: 0.34 Beta B: 2

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

ESA PADRE 2021