In 2020 Belstead Research led the development of the ESA PADRE code. This meta-tool enables a standard destructive re-entry code to be used for probabilistic assessments of re-entry events.
Statistical uncertainties in the vehicle model, initial state vector, material properties and atmosphere model can be defined within PADRE. A Monte-Carlo analysis is then used to characterise a re-entry in the presence of these uncertainties. The results, in terms of casualty risk, landed mass, fragment count and debris field location (DRA/SRA), are presented as web pages. Whilst small analyses may be executed on a desktop machine, large assessments can be delegated to servers or cloud-based infrastructure.
PADRE is re-entry tool agnostic, presenting output in a consistent format regardless of the back-end simulation code. Currently PADRE adapters exist for the ESA DRAMA, BRL SAMj and CNES DEBRISK re-entry codes.
The following links provide example PADRE output of the analysis of the uncontrolled re-entry of both a full spacecraft and an individual component.